Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Caballero, Julian A.
• 署名单位: Inter-American Development Bank
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12172
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 281-316
• 关键词: financial liberalization; credit booms; GLOBALIZATION

摘要

This article asks whether capital inflows bonanzas increase the probability of banking crises and whether this occurs through a lending boom mechanism. Results indicate that bonanzas more than triple the odds of a crisis, raising its probability to 14% (from an unconditional probability of 4%). This effect exists in the absence of a lending boom and is found in both net and gross inflows bonanzas. This effect is driven by portfolio-equity and debt flows. While the effect of debt is channelled through excessive lending, the effect of portfolio-equity flows is present even in the absence of a lending boom.