BOOM OR GLOOM? EXAMINING THE DUTCH DISEASE IN TWO-SPEED ECONOMIES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bjornland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif A.
• 署名单位: BI Norwegian Business School
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12302
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 2219-2256
• 关键词: oil price shocks; Manufacturing sector; CONSEQUENCES; macroeconomy; DISCOVERY; demand; energy; WORLD

摘要

Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. We then identify and quantify these spillovers using a Bayesian dynamic factor model. The model allows for resource movements and spending effects through a large panel of variables, while also identifying disturbances to other shocks. Using Australia and Norway as representative cases studies, we find that a booming resource sector has substantial productivity spillovers on non-resource sectors, effects that have not been captured in previous analysis.