Attitudes to Uncertainty in a Strategic Setting

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Li, Zhihua; Loomes, Graham; Pogrebna, Ganna
• 署名单位: University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12486
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 809-826
• 关键词: probability weighting function; subjective-probability; support theory; Focal points; REPRESENTATION; RISK

摘要

Much uncertainty in life relates to the behaviour of others in interactive environments. This article tests some implications of subjective expected utility theory (Savage, 1954) in an experimental strategic setting where there is uncertainty about the actions of other players. In this environment, a large majority of our participants violate subjective expected utility theory. However, they do not exhibit the sorts of consistent attitude to ambiguity' found in individual decision experiments. We discuss three possible explanations of their behaviour: non-linear transformation of probabilities; noise in responses; and/or systematic biases in the way that individuals generate subjective probabilities.