What Can the Duration of Discovered Cartels Tell Us About the Duration of All Cartels?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harrington, Joseph E., Jr.; Wei, Yanhao
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; University of Southern California
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12359
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1977-2005
• 关键词: antitrust authority; leniency; overcharges; penalties

摘要

Estimates of average cartel duration and the annual probability of cartel death are based on data for discovered cartels. It is recognised that these estimates could be biased because the population of discovered cartels may not be a representative sample of the latent population of cartels. This article constructs a birth-death-discovery process to investigate the source and direction of possible biases. Bayesian inference is used to provide bounds on the extent of the bias and deliver an improved set of beliefs on the probability of cartel death.