IT IS NOT JUST CONFUSION! STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY IN AN EXPERIMENTAL ASSET MARKET

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Akiyama, Eizo; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Ishikawa, Ryuichiro
• 署名单位: University of Tsukuba; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Cote d'Azur
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12338
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: F563-F580
• 关键词: Limited rationality; pricing experiments; aggregate outcomes; guessing games; call markets; expectations; bubbles; crashes; irrationality; feedback

摘要

To what extent is the observed mispricing in experimental asset markets caused by strategic uncertainty and by confusion? We address this question by comparing subjects' initial price forecasts in two market environments: one with six human traders and the other with one human and five computer traders. We find that both strategic uncertainty and confusion contribute equally to the median initial forecast deviation from the fundamental value. The effect of strategic uncertainty is greater for subjects with a perfect score in the cognitive reflection test, and it is not significant for those with low scores.