Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jessoe, Katrina; Manning, Dale T.; Taylor, J. Edward
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Davis; Colorado State University System; Colorado State University Fort Collins
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12448
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 230-261
• 关键词: us agriculture; crop yields; migration; temperature; adaptation; IMPACT; MARKETS; ECONOMY; stress; models

摘要

This article evaluates the effects of annual fluctuations in weather on employment in rural Mexico to gain insight into the potential labour market implications of climate change. Using a 28-year panel on individual employment, we find that years with a high occurrence of heat lead to a reduction in local employment, particularly for wage work and non-farm labour. Extreme heat also increases migration domestically from rural to urban areas and internationally to the US. A medium emissions scenario implies that increases in extreme heat may decrease local employment by up to 1.4% and climate change may increase migration by 1.4%.