Growth, Import Dependence, and War

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bonfatti, Roberto; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshoj
• 署名单位: University of Nottingham
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12511
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 2222-2257
• 关键词: economic interdependence; TRADE; GLOBALIZATION; CONFLICT; FUTURE

摘要

Theories of war predict that the leader may launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who attacked the West in 1941: both leaders and followers start wars. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet the First World War erupted at a time of unprecedented globalisation. We develop a model of trade and war that can explain both observations. Dependence on imports can lead followers to attack leaders or resource-rich regions when they are subject to blockade.