Noisy Introspection in the 11-20 Game

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Goeree, Jacob K.; Louis, Philippos; Zhang, Jingjing
• 署名单位: University of New South Wales Sydney; University of Cologne; University of New South Wales Sydney; University of Technology Sydney
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12479
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1509-1530
• 关键词: rationalizable strategic behavior; players models

摘要

Previous experiments based on the 11-20 game have produced evidence for the level-k model with observed levels of strategic thinking consistently ranging from 0 to 3. Our baseline treatment uses the 11-20 game and replicates previous results. We apply four models of strategic thinking to the baseline-treatment data and use these to predict behaviour and beliefs in five other treatments that employ games with a very similar structure. The best predictive performance is achieved by models that incorporate common knowledge of noise'. A model of noisy introspection, which does so, predicts behaviour remarkably well.