MELTING ICE CAPS AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPENING THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bekkers, Eddy; Francois, Joseph F.; Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo
• 署名单位: University of Bern; University of Bern; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12460
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1095-1127
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; maritime transport; climate; COSTS; services; barriers; gravity; decline; models

摘要

One consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting East Asia with Europe. This represents a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and average transportation days compared to the conventional Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of opening this route in a multi-sector Eaton-Kortum model with intermediate linkages. We find remarkable shifts in trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic and a substantial drop in Suez traffic. Projected shifts in trade also imply substantial pressure on an already threatened Arctic ecosystem.