GRAVITY WITHOUT APOLOGY: THE SCIENCE OF ELASTICITIES, DISTANCE AND TRADE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carrere, Celine; Mrazova, Monika; Neary, J. Peter
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaa034
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 880-910
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; product differentiation; demand; Brexit; equation; markups; pattern; COSTS; MODEL

摘要

Gravity as both fact and theory is one of the great success stories of recent research on international trade, and has featured prominently in the policy debate over Brexit. We first review the facts, noting the overwhelming evidence that trade tends to fall with distance. We then introduce some expository tools for understanding constant-elasticity-of-substitution theories of gravity as a simple general-equilibrium system. Next, we point out some anomalies with the theory: mounting evidence against constant trade elasticities, and implausible predictions for bilateral trade balances. Finally, we sketch an approach based on subconvex gravity as a promising direction to resolving them.