TESTING THE RANDOM UTILITY HYPOTHESIS DIRECTLY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: McCausland, William J.; Davis-Stober, Clintin; Marley, A. A. J.; Park, Sanghyuk; Brown, Nicholas
• 署名单位: Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal; University of Victoria; University of South Australia; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/uez039
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 183-207
• 关键词: model

摘要

We test a set of inequalities in choice probabilities, shown to be necessary and sufficient for random utility by Falmagne (1978). We run an experiment in which each of 141 participants chooses six times from each doubleton or larger subset of a universe of five lotteries. We compute Bayes factors in favour of random utility, versus an alternative with unrestricted choice probabilities. There is strong evidence that a large majority of participants satisfy random utility; however, there is strong evidence against random utility for four participants. Results are fairly robust to the choice of prior.