HOUSE PRICES AND GROWTH WITH FIXED LAND SUPPLY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Miles, David; Sefton, James
• 署名单位: Imperial College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Imperial College London
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaa088
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1815-1848
• 关键词: substitution; elasticity; demand; MODEL; work; time

摘要

We analyse housing costs and patterns of residential development over the long term in a dynamic general equilibrium. We show that in a growing economy the speed of travel improvements is crucial to the evolution of land and house prices. We derive a condition for the rate of change in transport efficiency that generates flat land and house prices on a balanced growth path. We present evidence that this condition was satisfied in many countries between the mid-nineteenth century and the mid-twentieth century, but since then passenger transport improvements have slowed down with major implications for how house prices evolve.