IS FERTILITY A LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR?
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Buckles, Kasey; Hungerman, Daniel; Lugauer, Steven
署名单位：
University of Notre Dame; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Kentucky
刊物名称：
ECONOMIC JOURNAL
ISSN/ISSBN：
0013-0133
DOI：
10.1093/ej/ueaa068
发表日期：
2021
页码：
541-565
关键词：
摘要：
Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. Using data on more than 100 million births from 1988 to 2014, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, there is a large and rapid fall in the growth rate of conceptions several quarters prior to economic decline. This newly emerging pattern appears in the aggregate data, as well as within individual states and in many European countries. Our findings suggest that fertility behaviour is more forward looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.