BREXIT UNCERTAINTY AND TRADE DISINTEGRATION

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Graziano, Alejandro G.; Handley, Kyle; Limao, Nuno
• 署名单位: University of Nottingham; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaa113
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1150-1185
• 关键词: Policy uncertainty; INVESTMENT; entry

摘要

We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU-UK bilateral export values between 11-20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.