CYCLICAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING: THEORY AND EMPIRICS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan
• 署名单位: National University of Singapore
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueab046
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 3392-3416
• 关键词: fiscal-policy; monetary; multiplier; stabilization; RECOVERY; BEHAVIOR; debt

摘要

This paper shows that part of what is usually labelled discretionary government spending actually varies systematically over the cycle. I exploit the pervasive gap between ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares local government spending multipliers to estimate how cyclical the systematic part of government spending is. Estimating a structural open-economy New Keynesian model on United States state-level data, I find that when employment decreases by , the systematic component of government spending decreases by . I also find that the empirical specification in Nakamura and Steinsson, 'Fiscal Stimulus in a monetary union' (American Economic Review, ) does a good job in recovering the true impact multiplier effect, but that it overestimates the long-run cumulative effect.