THE EFFECT OF TRADE ON WORKERS AND VOTERS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dippel, Christian; Gold, Robert; Heblich, Stephan; Pinto, Rodrigo
• 署名单位: National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Toronto; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueab041
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 199-217
• 关键词: import competition; job polarization; voting-behavior; NATIONALISM

摘要

We investigate economic causes of the rising support of populist parties in industrialised countries. Looking at Germany, we find that exposure to imports from low-wage countries increases the support for nationalist parties between 1987-2009, while increasing exports have the opposite effect. The net effect translates into increasing support of the right-populist Alternative for Germany party after its emergence in 2013. Individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel reveal that low-skilled manufacturing workers' political preferences are most responsive to trade exposure. Using a novel approach to causal mediation analysis, we identify trade-induced labour market adjustments as an economic mechanism causing the voting response to international trade.