On Target? Sanctions and the Economic Interests of Elite Policymakers in Iran

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Draca, Mirko; Garred, Jason; Stickland, Leanne; Warrinnier, Nele
• 署名单位: University of Warwick; University of Ottawa; University of London; Queen Mary University London
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueac042
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 159-200
• 关键词: impact; inference; CONFLICT; RISK

摘要

How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with significant influence over the direction of Iran's nuclear programme. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. The results indicate the 'bluntness' of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating substantial economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief.