THE SMOOT-HAWLEY TRADE WAR

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mitchener, Kris James; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshoj; Wandschneider, Kirsten
• 署名单位: Santa Clara University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; University of Vienna
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueac006
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 2500-2533
• 关键词: world-trade; Tariff; LESSONS; CONSEQUENCES; british; canada; import; IMPACT; rates; blocs

摘要

We document the outbreak of a trade war after the United States adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested, with many eventually choosing to retaliate with tariffs. Using a new quarterly dataset on bilateral trade for ninety-nine countries, we show that U.S. exports to retaliators fell by 28%-32%. Using a second new dataset on U.S. exports at the product level, we find that the most important U.S. exports to retaliating markets were particularly affected, suggesting a possible mechanism whereby the United States was targeted despite most-favoured-nation obligations. The retaliators' welfare gains from trade fell by 8%-16%.