Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ciani, Emanuele; Delavande, Adeline; Etheridge, Ben; Francesconi, Marco
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of Technology Sydney; Universidade Nova de Lisboa; University of Essex
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueac050
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 98-129
• 关键词: social-security; probabilistic expectations; macroeconomic expectations; subjective probabilities; inflation-expectations; retirement; BEHAVIOR; revisions; earnings; IMPACT

摘要

We examine how workers' expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information availability and worker characteristics. Using newly collected data, we find that (1) expectations about reform are revised upward by about 10 percentage points in the year prior to a reform, from a median of 50%, regardless of whether the reform is announced; (2) expectations increase more the stronger the media activity about imminent reforms; (3) the effect of information on expectations varies systematically with characteristics that proxy cognitive ability and information value; (4) expectations do not converge as a result of reform announcements or implementations.