Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Melander, Eric; Miotto, Martina
• 署名单位: University of Birmingham; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech Academy of Sciences; University of Birmingham
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueac083
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1248-1264
• 关键词: urban-growth; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; walled cities; city growth; CHINA; urbanization; determinants; TRADE; agglomeration; EVOLUTION

摘要

The New Poor Law reform of 1834 induced dramatic and heterogeneous reductions in welfare spending across English and Welsh counties. Using the reform in a difference-in-differences instrumental variables strategy, we document a robust negative relationship between the generosity of welfare provision and criminal activity. Results are driven by non-violent property crimes and are stronger during months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, highlighting the particularly criminogenic combination of welfare cuts and precarious work opportunities for the economically vulnerable.