Shaking Legitimacy: The Impact of Earthquakes on Conflict in Historical China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bai, Ying
• 署名单位: Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead004
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1286-1317
• 关键词: climate-change; diversity; WAR

摘要

This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.