Belief change, rationality, and strategic reasoning in sequential games

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Battigalli, P.; Catonini, E.; Manili, J.
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; Bocconi University; New York University; NYU Shanghai; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2023.09.003
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 527-551
• 关键词: Sequential games; Chain rule; Partial introspection; Rational planning; rationalizability

摘要

A central aspect of strategic reasoning in sequential games consists in anticipating how co-players would react to information about past play, which in turn depends on how co-players update and revise their beliefs. Several notions of belief system have been used to model how players' beliefs change as they obtain new information, some imposing considerably more discipline than others on how beliefs at different information sets are related. We highlight the differences between these notions of belief system in terms of introspection about one's own conditional beliefs, but we also show that such differences do not affect the essential aspects of rational planning and the behavioral implications of strategic reasoning, as captured by rationalizability. (c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.