Second-best probability weighting

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Herold, Florian; Netzer, Nick
• 署名单位: Otto Friedrich University Bamberg; University of Zurich
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2022.12.005
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 112-125
• 关键词: Probability weighting; prospect theory; Evolution of preferences

摘要

Non-linear probability weighting is an integral part of descriptive theories of choice under risk such as prospect theory. But why do these objective errors in information processing exist? Should we try to help individuals overcome their mistake of overweighting small and underweighting large probabilities? In this paper, we argue that probability weighting can be seen as a compensation for preexisting biases in evaluating payoffs. In particular, inverse S-shaped probability weighting is a flipside of S-shaped payoff valuation. Probability distortions may thus have survived as a second-best solution to a fitness maximization problem, and it can be counter-productive to correct them while keeping the value function unchanged.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).