Inference from biased polls

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brownback, Andy; Burke, Nathaniel; Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan
• 署名单位: University of Arkansas System; University of Arkansas Fayetteville; West Virginia University; University of Iowa
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.10.007
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 449-486
• 关键词: Polling; social desirability; inference; signaling

摘要

People often attempt to present a positive image by overstating virtuous behaviors when responding to unincentivized polls. We examine whether others account for this socially desirable responding (SDR) when drawing inferences from such unincentivized responses. In an experiment, we incentivize predictors to guess others' choice behaviors across actions with varying social desirability. Predictors observe random subsamples of either (i) incentivized choices or (ii) hypothetical claims. The hypothetical claims exhibit systematic SDR and predictors are reasonably skeptical of them. However, their skepticism is not tailored to the direction or magnitude of SDR. This under-correction occurs even though subjects' stated sentiment toward the actions can predict SDR.