Experimental evidence on the relationship between perceived ambiguity and likelihood insensitivity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Henkel, Luca
• 署名单位: University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.03.015
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 312-338
• 关键词: Ambiguity; decision-making under uncertainty; Likelihood insensitivity; Multiple prior models

摘要

Observed individual behavior in the presence of ambiguity shows insufficient responsiveness to changes in subjective likelihoods. Despite being integral to theoretical models and relevant in many domains, evidence on the causes and determining factors of such likelihood insensitive behavior is scarce. This paper investigates the role of beliefs in the form of ambiguity perception - the extent to which a decision -maker has difficulties assigning a single probability to each possible event - as a potential determinant. Using an experiment, I elicit measures of ambiguity perception and likelihood insensitivity and exogenously vary the level of perceived ambiguity. The results provide strong support for a perception -based explanation of likelihood insensitivity. The two measures are highly correlated at the individual level, and exogenously increasing ambiguity perception increases insensitivity, suggesting a causal relationship. In contrast, ambiguity perception is unrelated to ambiguity aversion - the extent to which a decisionmaker dislikes the presence of ambiguity.