Fertility decline as a coordination problem

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kohler, HP
• 署名单位: Max Planck Society
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(00)00118-8
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 231-263
• 关键词: fertility decline; coordination problem; Social interaction; social networks; equilibrium selection

摘要

The so-called 'diffusion of innovation' approach is often used in explanations of historical and contemporary fertility declines. We investigate this issue by developing a new theoretical analysis, which combines economic and sociological reasoning. Particular attention is devoted to the role of social networks for the selection of equilibria in situations when fertility decline constitutes a coordination problem. We show that the effect of networks depends on the particular interaction among individuals and on the prevailing socioeconomic conditions: 'information networks' can only speed up a fertility transition that would also take place in the absence of social interaction, while 'coordination networks' can facilitate demographic change in societies that would otherwise be caught in a Malthusian situation. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: J13; D83; D1.