Financial intermediation, variability and the development process

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carranza, L; Galdon-Sanchez, JE
• 署名单位: Universidad Publica de Navarra; University of Navarra
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.03.001
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 27-54
• 关键词: Strategic complementarity; market imperfections; GROWTH; multiple equilibria; Sunspot equilibrium

摘要

In this paper we build a model of financial intermediation that explains the pattern of GDP variability in an economy during the development process. We find evidence that per capita output is more volatile in middle-income economics than in both low and high-income economies. We show that, if the model economy is in the early or in the mature stages of development, there is a unique equilibrium. However, in the middle stages of development, multiple equilibria exist. Moreover, we find that in economics with imperfect credit markets, per capita output volatility tends to be higher than in economics with perfect or non-existent credit markets. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.