Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Raddatz, Claudio
• 署名单位: The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.11.001
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 155-187
• 关键词: external shocks; economic fluctuations; Low-income countries; Terms-of-trade shocks; natural disasters; Foreign aid

摘要

External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. This paper quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector auto-regression approach and determines their contributions to output volatility in low-income countries. We find that they can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Other factors, most likely internal causes, are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.