On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Tenreyro, Silvana
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.03.007
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 485-508
• 关键词: exchange rate volatility; TRADE; gravity equation; heteroskedasticity; Poisson regression; instrumental variable

摘要

What is the effect of nominal exchange rate variability on trade? I argue that the methods conventionally used to answer this perennial question are plagued by a variety of sources of systematic bias. I propose a novel approach that simultaneously addresses all of these biases, and present new estimates from a broad sample of countries from 1970 to 1997. The estimates indicate that nominal exchange rate variability has no significant impact on trade flows. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.