Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Kehoe, Timothy J.; Ruhl, Kim J.
• 署名单位: New York University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.01.003
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 235-249
• 关键词: Sudden stop; Developing country crisis; Real exchange rate; Tradable; Nontradable; Mexico; total factor productivity

摘要

A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994-95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFR Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity Without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.