A portfolio model of capital flows to emerging markets

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Devereux, Michael B.; Sutherland, Alan
• 署名单位: University of British Columbia; University of British Columbia; University of St Andrews; University of St Andrews; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.07.002
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 181-193
• 关键词: country portfolios; Emerging markets

摘要

Since the crises of the late 1990's, most emerging market economies have built up substantial positive holdings of US dollar treasury bills, while at the same time experiencing a boom in FDI capital inflows. This paper develops a DSGE model of the interaction between an emerging market economy and an advanced economy which incorporates two-way capital flows between the economies. The novel aspect of the paper is to make use of new methods for analyzing portfolio choice in DSGE models. We compare a range of alternative financial market structures, in each case computing equilibrium portfolios. We find that an asymmetric configuration where the emerging economy holds nominal bonds and issues claims on capital (FDI) can achieve a considerable degree of international risk-sharing. This risk-sharing can be enhanced by a more stable monetary policy in the advanced economy. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.