Serial correlation in demand, backlogging and production volatility

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Maccini, LJ; Zabel, E
• 署名单位: State University System of Florida; University of Florida
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.2307/2527331
• 发表日期: 1996
• 页码: 423-452
• 关键词: production smoothing model; inventory behavior; equilibrium; INVESTMENT; STOCK

摘要

This paper explores the idea that stockout avoidance motives together with serial correlation in demand and/or the backlogging of excess demand is sufficient to induce firms to behave so that the variance of production exceeds the variance of sales. We show that the idea holds under a wide range of circumstances facing firms, including additive as well as multiplicative demand uncertainty, a general form of serial correlation in demand, whether inventory and shortage costs apply, and whether payment occurs at order or delivery. The results greatly enhance the empirical relevance of the idea.