The geography of output volatility

• 成果类型: Review
• 署名作者: Malik, Adeel; Temple, Jonathan R. W.
• 署名单位: University of Bristol; University of Oxford; University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.10.003
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 163-178
• 关键词: volatility; geography; institutions; Bayesian model averaging

摘要

This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.