Demography, national savings, and international capital flows

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Higgins, M
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.2307/2527297
• 发表日期: 1998
• 页码: 343-369
• 关键词: dependency rates; GROWTH

摘要

This paper addresses the relationship between age distribution, national savings and the current account balance. The results point to substantial demographic effects, with increases in both the youth and old-age dependency ratios associated with lower savings rates. They also point to differential effects on savings and investment, and thus to a role for demography in determining the current account balance. The estimated demographic effect on the current account balance exceeds six per cent of GDP over the last three decades for a number of countries and, given expected demographic trends, is likely to be substantially larger over the coming decades.