From Malthus to modern growth:: Can epidemics explain the three regimes?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lagerlöf, NP
• 署名单位: Concordia University - Canada
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00088
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 755-777
• 关键词: economic-growth; mortality decline; demographic-transition; population; stagnation; KNOWLEDGE; cities

摘要

We model demographic and economic long-run development in a setting where mortality is endogenous and subject to epidemic shocks. The model replicates the full transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. Consistent with the historical facts, the economy also passes an intermediate post-Malthusian phase where growth rates of both population and per capita income increase simultaneously, as mortality rates fall and become less volatile. The escape from the Malthusian trap is the result of a series of mild epidemic shocks, making it inevitable at some stage, but its timing random. Calibrations show that it can differ by thousands of generations, absent differences in exogenous parameters.