Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bordo, Michael D.; Cavallo, Alberto F.; Meissner, Christopher M.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Davis; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.09.005
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 227-241
• 关键词: Sudden stops; Economic growth; financial crises; foreign debt; Financial globalization

摘要

We study the determinants and output effects of Sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization from 1880 to 1913. Higher levels of exposure to foreign currency debt and large current account deficits associated with reliance on foreign capital greatly increased the likelihood of experiencing a sudden stop. Trade openness and strong reserve positions had the opposite effect. Sudden stops accompanied by financial crises are associated with drops in output per capita below trend equal to three to four percent. Frictions in the international capital markets of the day are a likely candidate for these output losses. Sudden stops connected with crises do not seem to bring trend growth downwards. Sudden stops not connected with crises appear to be associated with significant declines in trend growth. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.