What accounts for the decline in crime?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Imrohoroglu, A; Merlo, A; Rupert, P
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; University of Southern California; Western University (University of Western Ontario); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/j.0020-6598.2004.00284.x
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 707-729
• 关键词: inequality; MODEL; work

摘要

In this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the United States. We propose a dynamic equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: First, the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996. Second, the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability, the stronger economy, and the aging of the population. Third, the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible. Fourth, the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime. Overall, our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century.