Endogenous growth cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Wälde, K
• 署名单位: Technische Universitat Dresden
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2005.00349.x
• 发表日期: 2005
• 页码: 867-894
• 关键词: Creative destruction; business cycles; POLICY; stabilization; fluctuations; uncertainty; INVESTMENT; economy/; models; shocks

摘要

Current explanations for why a growing economy necessarily goes through periods of high and low growth predict countercyclical R&D investment. As this is very controversial from an empirical perspective, a stochastic Poisson model of endogenous growth cycles is presented where the determinants of the cyclical behavior of R&D investment are analytically studied. Providing an explicit expression for the expected length of a cycle shows that high-frequency fluctuations can indeed be understood by this approach. It is also shown how small technological improvements translate into large aggregate fluctuations.