The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: de Carvalho Filho, Irineu; Chamon, Marcos
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.009
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 368-386
• 关键词: household consumption; measurement error; CPI bias; economic reform; trade liberalization; Inflation stabilization

摘要

Economic policies are often judged by a handful of statistics, some of which may be biased during periods of change. We estimate the income growth implied by the evolution of food demand and durable good ownership in post-reform Brazil and Mexico, and find that changes in consumption patterns are inconsistent with official estimates of near stagnant incomes. That is attributed to biases in the price deflator. The estimated unmeasured income gains are higher for poorer households, implying marked reductions in real inequality. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom that post-reform income growth was low and did not benefit the poor. (C) 2011 International Monetary Fund. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.