The information technology revolution and the puzzling trends in Tobin's average q

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Peralta-Alva, Adrian
• 署名单位: University of Miami
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2007.00450.x
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 929-951
• 关键词: stock-market; UNITED-STATES; GROWTH; INVESTMENT

摘要

The market value of U.S. corporations declined by 50% during 1973-74 and stagnated for the following 15 years. This abrupt decline in market valuations coincided with two technology shocks: (1) the start of the information technology revolution and (2) a sudden slowdown in productivity growth. I use general equilibrium theory to quantify the macroeconomic and asset price implications of these two shocks. ne information technology revolution and the productivity slowdown make the theory consistent with the trends of key macroeconomic aggregates from the mid-1970s to the 1990s, and can also account for most of the drop in market values.