What makes growth sustained?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Berg, Andrew; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; European Bank of Reconstructon & Development
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.08.002
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 149-166
• 关键词: growth; Accelerations; Structural Breaks; income inequality

摘要

We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define growth spells: periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample. Growth spells tend to be shorter in African and Latin American countries than elsewhere. We find evidence that growth duration is positively related to: the degree of equality of the income distribution; democratic institutions; export orientation (with higher propensities to export manufactures, greater openness to EDI, and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for duration); and macroeconomic stability. (C) 2011 International Monetary Fund. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.