THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY AND NONTECHNOLOGY SHOCKS IN BUSINESS CYCLES*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Watanabe, Shingo
• 署名单位: Bank of Japan; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00721.x
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 1287-1321
• 关键词: long-run restrictions; aggregate fluctuations; hypothesis; CRISIS; TRENDS; JAPAN

摘要

This article proposes a method to identify technology and nontechnology shocks that permanently affect labor productivity and applies this method to data for the G7 countries. In most cases, whereas technology improvements have negative or weak effects on hours worked, positive permanent nontechnology shocks are expansionary. Permanent nontechnology shocks play an important role in business cycles, particularly in the United States and Japan, and account for 71% of a large reduction in Japan's detrended output from 1991 to 2002. Credit conditions are likely to be an important driver of variations in permanent nontechnology shocks.