ESTIMATING INCENTIVE AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF NONSTATIONARY UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Launov, Andrey; Walde, Klaus
• 署名单位: Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz; Universite Catholique Louvain
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12032
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 1159-1198
• 关键词: the-job search; markov renewal processes; strategic experimentation; European unemployment; duration dependence; equilibrium search; effects consistent; insurance; MODEL; LABOR

摘要

The distribution of unemployment duration in our equilibrium matching model with spell-dependent unemployment benefits displays time-varying exit rates. Building on semi-Markov processes, we translate these rates into an expression for the aggregate unemployment rate. Structural estimation using German microdata allows us to discuss the effects of an unemployment benefit reform (Hartz IV). The reform reduced unemployment by less than 0.1 percentage points. Contrary to general beliefs, the net wage for most skill and regional groups increased. Taking the insurance effect of unemployment benefits into account, however, the reform is welfare reducing for 76% of workers.