AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF LEARNING UNDER AMBIGUITY: THE CASE OF CLINICAL TRIALS*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fernandez, Jose M.
• 署名单位: University of Louisville
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12006
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 549-573
• 关键词: selection; BIAS; uncertainty; CHOICE

摘要

This article presents a two-dimensional structural model of learning under ambiguity in the context of clinical trials. Clinical trials offer an ideal environment to study learning under ambiguity. The randomization process found in these studies leaves patients uncertain to their actual group assignment. Therefore, patients cannot immediately attribute changes in health to the experimental drug. The article proposes the use of learning instrumental variables to simultaneously update patients' beliefs of the treatment effect and group assignment. Patient learning is found to be faster when observable side effects are incorporated to account for the uncertainty in group assignment.