ON FISCAL MULTIPLIERS: ESTIMATES FROM A MEDIUM SCALE DSGE MODEL

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zubairy, Sarah
• 署名单位: Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12045
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 169-195
• 关键词: cyclical behavior; GOVERNMENT; shocks; consumption; prices; POLICY

摘要

This article contributes to the debate on fiscal multipliers, in the context of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, featuring a rich fiscal policy block and a transmission mechanism for government spending shocks. I find the multiplier for government spending to be 1.07, which is largest on impact. The multipliers for labor and capital tax on impact are 0.13 and 0.34, respectively. The effects of tax cuts take time to build and exceed stimulative effects of spending by 12-20 quarters. I carry out counterfactual exercises to show how alternative financing methods and expected monetary policy have consequences for the size of fiscal multipliers.