GLOBALIZATION, TRADE, AND WAGES: WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US ABOUT CHINA?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mitchener, Kris James; Yan, Se
• 署名单位: Santa Clara University; University of Warwick; Peking University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12044
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 131-168
• 关键词: factor-price convergence; foreign ownership; INEQUALITY; IMPACT; LIBERALIZATION; Mexico; TECHNOLOGY; heckscher; industry; reforms

摘要

Newly assembled data show that, as China opened up to global trade during the early 20th century, its exports became more unskilled-intensive and its imports more skill-intensive. Difference-in-differences estimates show that World War I dramatically increased Chinese exports, raising the relative demand for the unskilled workers producing them. When the war ended, trade costs declined and China's terms of trade increased, further stimulating exports. A simulation of a dynamic general equilibrium model demonstrates that the effects of the war on China's terms of trade produces a decline in the skill premium similar to what China experienced in the 1920s.