WHEN DOES DETERMINACY IMPLY EXPECTATIONAL STABILITY?

• 成果类型: Review
• 署名作者: Bullard, James; Eusepi, Stefano
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12039
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 1-22
• 关键词: monetary-policy; rules

摘要

Since the introduction of rational expectations, there have been issues with multiple equilibria and equilibrium selection. We study the connections between determinacy of rational expectations equilibrium and learnability of that equilibrium in a general class of purely forward-looking models. Our framework is sufficiently flexible to encompass lags in agents' information and either finite horizon or infinite horizon approaches to learning. We are able to isolate conditions under which determinacy does and does not imply learnability and also conditions under which long-horizon forecasts make a clear difference for learnability. Finally, we apply our result to a relatively general New Keynesian model.