ESTIMATING DYNAMIC DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS WITH HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MAMMOGRAPHY DECISIONS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fang, Hanming; Wang, Yang
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; Lafayette College
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12115
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 565-596
• 关键词: maximum-likelihood-estimation; nonparametric identification; structural models; job search; welfare; HEALTH; parameter; CONTRACT; POLICY; women

摘要

We extend the semiparametric estimation method for dynamic discrete choice models using Hotz and Miller's (Review of Economic Studies 60 (1993), 497-529) conditional choice probability approach to the setting where individuals may have hyperbolic discounting time preferences and may be naive about their time inconsistency. We illustrate the proposed identification and estimation method with an empirical application of adult women's decisions to undertake mammography to evaluate the importance of present bias and naivety in the underutilization of this preventive health care. Our results show evidence for both present bias and naivety.