Local political business cycles: Evidence from Philippine municipalities

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Labonne, Julien
• 署名单位: Yale NUS College
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.03.004
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 56-62
• 关键词: Elections; EMPLOYMENT; decentralization

摘要

This paper establishes the existence of short-term political business cycles in the Philippines over the period 2003-2009. Examining a balanced panel of 1143 municipalities shows that employment levels increase in the two pre-electoral quarters and drop sharply in the two quarters following elections. Further results are consistent with the cycles being generated by incumbents' attempts to increase their chances of re-election. Cycles are stronger in sectors that incumbents are more able to influence, and when they expect stronger electoral competition. Evidence suggests that these cycles are detrimental to development. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.