UNDERSTANDING THE LONG-RUN DECLINE IN INTERSTATE MIGRATION

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kaplan, Greg; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12209
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 57-94
• 关键词: dynamic-factor model; monetary-policy; exchange-rate; dependence; arbitrage; panels

摘要

We analyze the secular decline in gross interstate migration in the United States from 1991 to 2011. We argue that migration fell because of a decline in the geographic specificity of returns to occupations, together with an increase in workers' ability to learn about other locations before moving. Micro data on earnings and occupations across space provide evidence for lower geographic specificity. Other explanations do not fit the data. Acalibrated model formalizes the geographic specificity and information mechanisms and is consistent with cross-sectional and time-series evidence. Our mechanisms can explain at least half of the decline in migration.